NE @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
NE Patriots
22
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NE52%22
KC48%22
22
KC Chiefs

Projected Team Stats

NE
KC
52% Win Probability 48%
351 Total Yards 353
229 Passing Yards 219
122 Rushing Yards 134
2.9 Sacks 2.9
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye243 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson60 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.2 rec, 61 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.2 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III86 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Rashee Rice6.2 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.8 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 0.2

The model leans Chiefs by 0.2, winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 22-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.0 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 26 yds on just 37% open, 0.5 INT a game, - shut down all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots' line should hold up: the Chiefs win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.9 sacks and 28.4 pressures a game (Felix Anudike-Uzomah (2.0 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Patriots may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.8 sacks a game, and Dre'Mont Jones (2.0 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice is the engine of the Chiefs' passing game — 55 yds a game on 44% separation.
  • Expect the Patriots to feed Romeo Doubs: 3.7 catches for 34 yds a game, open 45% of the time.
  • In coverage, Carlton Davis III (Patriots) travels and erases — only 35% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III is the workhorse for the Chiefs, churning 86 yds a game at 6.0 a carry, with his best work to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson sets the tempo for the Patriots — 60 yds a game on the ground at 4.5 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

KC by 0.2 (48% to win) Projected total 44 pts Drake Maye ~243 pass yds (250+ 50%) Kenneth Walker III ~86 rush yds (70+ 64%) Rashee Rice ~68 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 40%)