NE @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NE Patriots
22
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NE58%22
CHI42%22
22
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -3 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

NE
CHI
58% Win Probability 42%
366 Total Yards 332
222 Passing Yards 181
144 Rushing Yards 150
2.9 Sacks 3.3
1.9 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye239 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Romeo Doubs5.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.1 rec, 41 yds, 0.3 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams199 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift64 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze4.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.5 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 0.3

The sim sides with Patriots: a 0.3-point edge and a 58% win rate over 50 runs (22-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 42 yds on just 38% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.7 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' quarterback should have time; the Patriots win just 50% of reps for 5.8 sacks a game, Dre'Mont Jones (1.9 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bears may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.4 sacks a game (Montez Sweat (2.7 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Patriots' aerial attack runs through Romeo Doubs (43 yds a game, open on 47% of routes).
  • The Bears' aerial attack runs through Rome Odunze (42 yds a game, open on 38% of routes).
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps with 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots' run game leans on Rhamondre Stevenson — 14 carries, 65 yds a game (4.7 a carry), churning to the right side and moving the chains.
  • D'Andre Swift carries the load for the Bears, 14 carries for 64 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -0.3
Market lineCHI -3
Sim total44
Market total49.5
NE by 0.3 (58% to win) Projected total 44 pts Drake Maye ~239 pass yds (250+ 44%) Rhamondre Stevenson ~65 rush yds (70+ 36%) Romeo Doubs ~71 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 56%)