MIN @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIN Vikings
18
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIN22%18
DET78%31
31
DET Lions

Projected Team Stats

MIN
DET
22% Win Probability 78%
289 Total Yards 404
210 Passing Yards 273
79 Rushing Yards 131
1.4 Sacks 3.1
1.0 Turnovers 0.6

Projected Leaders

MIN
PASS Kyler Murray234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff258 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 12.6

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 12.6 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 31-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Malcolm Rodriguez (Lions) - winner: Malcolm Rodriguez, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 49% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 26.0 pressures a game, Aidan Hutchinson (3.8 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Vikings may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.7 sacks a game — Dallas Turner (2.8 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Lions lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown, good for 7.7 catches and 65 yds a game while breaking open on 58% of his routes.
  • Justin Jefferson is the go-to for the Vikings, separating on 60% of routes for 44 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings): 29% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs sets the tempo for the Lions — 87 yds a game on the ground at 7.0 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Vikings lean on Aaron Jones, 14 carries for 40 yds a game at 2.8 a carry.

Model vs Market

DET by 12.6 (78% to win) Projected total 49 pts Jared Goff ~258 pass yds (250+ 58%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~87 rush yds (70+ 58%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~71 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 50%)