MIA @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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MIA Dolphins
11
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
MIA12%11
NYJ88%21
21
NYJ Jets
BET VALUE
MARKET NYJ -5.5 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

MIA
NYJ
12% Win Probability 88%
224 Total Yards 319
158 Passing Yards 206
66 Rushing Yards 113
2.7 Sacks 2.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

MIA
PASS Malik Willis176 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II34 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Washington3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.1 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith215 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Breece Hall62 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell3.3 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD

Jets by 10.2

Across 50 simulations, Jets come out on top 88% of the time by an average of 10.2 (21-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ollie Gordon II (Dolphins) vs Demario Davis (Jets) - winner: Demario Davis, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jowon Briggs (Jets) vs Jonah Savaiinaea (Dolphins) - winner: Jowon Briggs, winning 57% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jets — a 51% win rate yields only 5.1 sacks and 27.1 pressures a game, with Kingsley Enagbare (1.8 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Jets' line should hold up: the Dolphins win just 48% of their reps, mustering 5.1 sacks and 20.2 pressures a game — Joshua Uche (3.0 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Garrett Wilson to eat: 6.8 catches and 57 yds a game for the Jets.
  • Look for Malik Washington to eat: 3.7 catches and 26 yds a game for the Dolphins.
  • On the back end, Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 40% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Jets lean on Breece Hall, 14 carries for 62 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • The Dolphins hand it to Ollie Gordon II early and often, 12 carries for 34 yds a game at 2.9 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -10.2
Market lineNYJ -5.5
Sim total31
Market total39.5
NYJ by 10.2 (88% to win) Projected total 31 pts Geno Smith ~215 pass yds (250+ 26%) Breece Hall ~62 rush yds (70+ 28%) Garrett Wilson ~70 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 50%)