LA @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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LA Rams
27
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
LA94%27
WAS6%12
12
WAS Commanders

Projected Team Stats

LA
WAS
94% Win Probability 6%
416 Total Yards 227
294 Passing Yards 168
122 Rushing Yards 59
3.1 Sacks 1.9
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

LA
PASS Matthew Stafford277 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams70 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Puka Nacua6.8 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams5.6 rec, 83 yds, 0.5 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels189 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt26 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.4 rec, 59 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Stefon Diggs3.1 rec, 34 yds

Rams by 14.3

Across 50 simulations, Rams come out on top 94% of the time by an average of 14.3 (27-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 36 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Quentin Lake (Rams) - winner: Quentin Lake, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 65% of routes for 9.2/11.8, 77 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.6 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Fabian Moreau (Commanders) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 59% of routes for 5.3/8.3, 51 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Rams — a 50% win rate, 6.0 sacks and 32.4 pressures a game — Byron Young (2.9 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Commanders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.1 sacks a game), Odafe Oweh (3.1 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the engine of the Rams' passing game — 77 yds a game on 65% separation.
  • Look for Terry McLaurin to eat: 4.2 catches and 36 yds a game for the Commanders.
  • Trent McDuffie (Rams) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 34% of his coverage snaps — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Kyren Williams: 70 yds a game at 4.6 a carry for the Rams, with his best work to the right side.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt sets the tempo for the Commanders — 26 yds a game on the ground at 2.2 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

LA by 14.3 (94% to win) Projected total 39 pts Matthew Stafford ~277 pass yds (250+ 70%) Kyren Williams ~70 rush yds (70+ 50%) Puka Nacua ~92 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 72%)