KC @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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KC Chiefs
20
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC60%20
DEN40%19
19
DEN Broncos

Projected Team Stats

KC
DEN
60% Win Probability 40%
348 Total Yards 319
205 Passing Yards 220
143 Rushing Yards 99
2.5 Sacks 2.9
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes219 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III96 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.0 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce3.9 rec, 45 yds, 0.4 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix233 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins48 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.2 rec, 92 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.0 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD

Chiefs by 0.7

The model leans Chiefs by 0.7, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 6.6 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 59% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 51% win rate, 4.9 sacks and 25.7 pressures a game, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1.5 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Broncos may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.1 sacks a game — Nik Bonitto (2.4 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice headlines the Chiefs' receiving corps — 6.2 catches for 48 yds a game on 50% separation.
  • The Broncos lean on Jaylen Waddle, good for 7.9 catches and 68 yds a game while breaking open on 54% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos): 44% separation allowed, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III is the workhorse for the Chiefs, churning 96 yds a game at 6.6 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Broncos hand it to J.K. Dobbins early and often, 13 carries for 48 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

KC by 0.7 (60% to win) Projected total 39 pts Bo Nix ~233 pass yds (250+ 42%) Kenneth Walker III ~96 rush yds (70+ 62%) Jaylen Waddle ~92 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 74%)