KC @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
KC Chiefs
29
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
KC78%29
BUF22%20
20
BUF Bills

Projected Team Stats

KC
BUF
78% Win Probability 22%
424 Total Yards 312
269 Passing Yards 200
154 Rushing Yards 113
2.7 Sacks 1.6
0.9 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes256 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III103 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.6 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.4 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen215 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH James Cook57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.2 rec, 74 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.7 rec, 36 yds, 0.5 TD

Chiefs by 9.9

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 9.9-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (29-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 7.3 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Rashee Rice (Chiefs) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Rashee Rice, open on 67% of routes for 6.3/8.7, 57 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Kingsley Suamataia (Chiefs) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 2.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Chiefs — a 50% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 27.3 pressures a game, Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Bills get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.0 sacks a game), with Bradley Chubb (1.0 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Chiefs to feed Rashee Rice: 6.3 catches for 57 yds a game, open 67% of the time.
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 6.5 catches for 59 yds a game on 45% separation.
  • Nohl Williams (Chiefs) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 41% of routes — and 0.3 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III sets the tempo for the Chiefs — 103 yds a game on the ground at 7.3 a carry, with his best work off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 57 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Bills, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

KC by 9.9 (78% to win) Projected total 49 pts Patrick Mahomes ~256 pass yds (250+ 56%) Kenneth Walker III ~103 rush yds (70+ 66%) Rashee Rice ~75 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 56%)