JAX @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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JAX Jaguars
16
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
JAX36%16
BLT64%18
18
BLT Ravens

Projected Team Stats

JAX
BLT
36% Win Probability 64%
270 Total Yards 288
211 Passing Yards 175
59 Rushing Yards 114
2.7 Sacks 1.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence222 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten32 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Parker Washington5.1 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers2.9 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson192 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry61 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.5 rec, 33 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 2.0

Ravens are the pick here, favoured by 2.0 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 18-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 62% of routes for 6.0/8.1, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Montaric Brown (Jaguars) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 58% of routes for 6.2/8.0, 52 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Ravens — a 49% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 15.0 pressures a game, and Trenton Simpson (1.1 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 5.4 sacks and 23.9 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (2.6 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens' aerial attack runs through Zay Flowers (52 yds a game, open on 58% of routes).
  • Parker Washington headlines the Jaguars' receiving corps — 6.0 catches for 58 yds a game on 62% separation.
  • Few balls get past Ventrell Miller (Jaguars), who yields separation on 35% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Derrick Henry sets the tempo for the Ravens — 61 yds a game on the ground at 3.5 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 32 yds a game at 2.5 a carry for the Jaguars.

Model vs Market

BLT by 2.0 (64% to win) Projected total 34 pts Trevor Lawrence ~222 pass yds (250+ 36%) Derrick Henry ~61 rush yds (70+ 34%) Parker Washington ~74 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 48%)