IND @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
IND Colts
24
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
IND74%24
TEN26%16
16
TEN Titans

Projected Team Stats

IND
TEN
74% Win Probability 26%
345 Total Yards 293
242 Passing Yards 215
103 Rushing Yards 78
3.1 Sacks 1.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones237 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor64 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.6 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Josh Downs4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward238 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard36 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Carnell Tate6.3 rec, 85 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.1 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Colts by 8.0

The model leans Colts by 8.0, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 24-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Atonio Mafi (Titans) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 57% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 6.4 sacks a game (JT Tuimoloau (2.5 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (3.4 sacks a game), Jeffery Simmons (2.3 sacks, 1.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Josh Downs is the engine of the Colts' passing game — 41 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Carnell Tate should find soft spots all day, open 47% of the time for 59 yds a game.
  • Sauce Gardner (Colts) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 14 carries for 64 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 10 carries, 36 yds a game (3.6 a carry), churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

IND by 8.0 (74% to win) Projected total 40 pts Cam Ward ~238 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jonathan Taylor ~64 rush yds (70+ 46%) Carnell Tate ~85 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 58%)