IND @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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IND Colts
18
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
IND30%18
JAX70%26
26
JAX Jaguars

Projected Team Stats

IND
JAX
30% Win Probability 70%
285 Total Yards 380
197 Passing Yards 251
87 Rushing Yards 129
2.0 Sacks 1.7
1.8 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

IND
PASS Daniel Jones208 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor54 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Josh Downs4.7 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.1 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten73 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Parker Washington5.4 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 7.9

Across 50 simulations, Jaguars come out on top 70% of the time by an average of 7.9 (26-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Bhayshul Tuten, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 60% of routes for 7.0/8.8, 73 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 50% of reps for 3.5 sacks a game, led by Josh Hines-Allen (2.6 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Colts — a 51% win rate, 3.8 sacks and 17.5 pressures a game, and JT Tuimoloau (0.9 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Parker Washington's show for the Jaguars: 73 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Expect the Colts to feed Josh Downs: 5.2 catches for 39 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • On the back end, Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 32% of routes, adding 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bhayshul Tuten sets the tempo for the Jaguars — 73 yds a game on the ground at 5.5 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 14 carries for 54 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

JAX by 7.9 (70% to win) Projected total 44 pts Trevor Lawrence ~249 pass yds (250+ 44%) Bhayshul Tuten ~73 rush yds (70+ 36%) Parker Washington ~84 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 62%)