HST @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
HST Texans
21
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
HST78%21
LAC22%13
13
LAC Chargers

Projected Team Stats

HST
LAC
78% Win Probability 22%
313 Total Yards 260
251 Passing Yards 183
62 Rushing Yards 77
4.2 Sacks 2.3
0.9 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

HST
PASS C.J. Stroud249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH David Montgomery29 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Nico Collins5.9 rec, 85 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.3.4 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert211 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton28 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.6 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Harris4.3 rec, 50 yds, 0.1 TD

Texans by 8.7

The model leans Texans by 8.7, winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 21-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Travis Burke (Chargers) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 55% of reps for 4.9 sacks and 9.9 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Derwin James Jr. (Chargers) - winner: Derwin James Jr., holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Logan Hall (Texans) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Logan Hall, winning 56% of reps for 0.1 sacks and 2.5 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 52% win rate yields only 8.1 sacks and 36.6 pressures a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (4.9 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 51% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 25.9 pressures a game, and Tuli Tuipulotu (3.5 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Nico Collins' show for the Texans: 62 yds a game, open on 58% of routes.
  • Expect the Chargers to feed Ladd McConkey: 5.2 catches for 44 yds a game, open 58% of the time.
  • Jalen Pitre (Texans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 38% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 12 carries for 29 yds a game at 2.3 a carry with tough sledding.
  • On the ground, the Chargers ride Omarion Hampton: 12 carries, 28 yds a game (2.4 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

HST by 8.7 (78% to win) Projected total 34 pts C.J. Stroud ~249 pass yds (250+ 46%) Nico Collins ~85 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 58%)