GB @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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GB Packers
20
PROJECTION
GB 22 – MIN 39
Week 1 50-sim average Sun 13 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
GB64%20 22
MIN36%14 39
14
MIN Vikings
✗ RESULT MIN by 17 model GB by 5.6, off by 22.6
✗ SPREAD GB -1 LOSS line at publish GB -1
✗ TOTAL 61 pts OVER O/U 45.5, model 34 lean under

Projected Team Stats

GB
MIN
64% Win Probability 36%
312 Total Yards 260
224 Passing Yards 173
88 Rushing Yards 87
3.6 Sacks 1.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

GB
PASS Jordan Love223 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Josh Jacobs55 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Christian Watson4.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jayden Reed3.6 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray200 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones39 rush yds
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.0 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD

Packers by 5.6

Run it 50 times and Packers win 64% of them, by 5.6 on average (20-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Micah Parsons (Packers) vs Brian O'Neill (Vikings) - winner: Micah Parsons, winning 56% of reps for 4.4 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 50% win rate, 6.1 sacks and 27.8 pressures a game (Micah Parsons (4.4 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Vikings — a 51% win rate yields only 3.5 sacks and 20.0 pressures a game, Dallas Turner (2.0 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Christian Watson should find soft spots all day, open 54% of the time for 61 yds a game.
  • Justin Jefferson headlines the Vikings' receiving corps — 6.3 catches for 46 yds a game on 55% separation.
  • On the back end, Xavier McKinney (Packers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 31% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Josh Jacobs carries the load for the Packers, 15 carries for 55 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • The Vikings hand it to Aaron Jones early and often, 12 carries for 39 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineGB -5.6
Market lineGB -1
Sim total34
Market total45.5
GB by 5.6 (64% to win) Projected total 34 pts Jordan Love ~223 pass yds (250+ 30%) Josh Jacobs ~55 rush yds (70+ 24%) Christian Watson ~75 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 56%)