DET @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DET Lions
29
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DET82%29
MIN18%20
20
MIN Vikings

Projected Team Stats

DET
MIN
82% Win Probability 18%
393 Total Yards 278
257 Passing Yards 206
136 Rushing Yards 72
2.8 Sacks 1.7
0.8 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

DET
PASS Jared Goff253 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs87 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.2 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.0 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray224 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones37 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.2 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 9.4

Run it 50 times and Lions win 82% of them, by 9.4 on average (29-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Aaron Jones (Vikings) vs Malcolm Rodriguez (Lions) - winner: Malcolm Rodriguez, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
In the Trenches
  • The Lions get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), with Aidan Hutchinson (3.3 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Vikings may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 3.5 sacks a game (Dallas Turner (2.7 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the go-to for the Lions, separating on 58% of routes for 50 yds a game.
  • Expect the Vikings to feed Justin Jefferson: 5.4 catches for 48 yds a game, open 63% of the time.
  • On the back end, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 29% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions hand it to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often, 14 carries for 87 yds a game at 6.3 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • On the ground, the Vikings ride Aaron Jones: 14 carries, 37 yds a game (2.7 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

DET by 9.4 (82% to win) Projected total 49 pts Jared Goff ~253 pass yds (250+ 50%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~87 rush yds (70+ 68%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~64 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 48%)