DEN @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
DEN Broncos
15
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DEN46%15
PIT54%20
20
PIT Steelers

Projected Team Stats

DEN
PIT
46% Win Probability 54%
283 Total Yards 341
198 Passing Yards 243
85 Rushing Yards 98
2.3 Sacks 2.5
1.5 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix212 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins42 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.8 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.4 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.9 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 4.0

Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 4.0 and winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 20-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Steelers — a 50% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 27.8 pressures a game, Alex Highsmith (1.5 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Steelers' quarterback should have time; the Broncos win just 50% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, led by Nik Bonitto (2.1 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • D.K. Metcalf headlines the Steelers' receiving corps — 6.6 catches for 48 yds a game on 43% separation.
  • The Broncos lean on Jaylen Waddle, good for 6.0 catches and 47 yds a game while breaking open on 48% of his routes.
  • In coverage, Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) travels and erases — only 38% separation allowed, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren sets the tempo for the Steelers — 62 yds a game on the ground at 5.2 a carry, churning off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Broncos lean on J.K. Dobbins, 12 carries for 42 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

PIT by 4.0 (54% to win) Projected total 35 pts Aaron Rodgers ~248 pass yds (250+ 46%) Jaylen Warren ~62 rush yds (70+ 26%) Jaylen Waddle ~87 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 62%)