DEN @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
21
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DEN46%21
LV54%20
20
LV Raiders

Projected Team Stats

DEN
LV
46% Win Probability 54%
342 Total Yards 322
238 Passing Yards 241
104 Rushing Yards 82
1.9 Sacks 2.5
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix248 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins54 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.0 rec, 98 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.5 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Tucker5.1 rec, 67 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.8 rec, 58 yds, 0.5 TD

Broncos by 1.2

Across 50 simulations, Broncos come out on top 46% of the time by an average of 1.2 (21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs DJ Glaze (Raiders) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 3.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs Taron Johnson (Raiders) - winner: Jaylen Waddle, open on 59% of routes for 6.9/12.0, 62 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (3.7 sacks a game), Nik Bonitto (2.0 sacks, 3.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Raiders — a 50% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 24.6 pressures a game, led by Maxx Crosby (3.5 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Jaylen Waddle's show for the Broncos: 62 yds a game, open on 59% of routes.
  • Look for Tre Tucker to eat: 6.0 catches and 48 yds a game for the Raiders.
  • Few balls get past Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos), who yields separation on 39% of routes with 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of J.K. Dobbins: 54 yds a game at 4.1 a carry for the Broncos, with his best work to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Raiders ride Ashton Jeanty: 14 carries, 44 yds a game (3.1 a carry), with his best work to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

DEN by 1.2 (46% to win) Projected total 41 pts Kirk Cousins ~251 pass yds (250+ 50%) J.K. Dobbins ~54 rush yds (70+ 22%) Jaylen Waddle ~98 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 78%)