DEN @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
22
PROJECTION
DEN 10 – KC 31
Week 1 50-sim average Mon 14 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DEN66%22 10
KC34%18 31
18
KC Chiefs
✗ RESULT KC by 21 model DEN by 3.9, off by 24.9
✗ VALUE DEN +2.5 LOSS line at publish KC -2.5
✓ TOTAL 41 pts UNDER O/U 43.5, model 40 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DEN
KC
66% Win Probability 34%
353 Total Yards 287
229 Passing Yards 163
124 Rushing Yards 123
4.4 Sacks 3.0
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix238 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins56 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.7 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes188 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III64 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.4 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Xavier Worthy3.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD

Broncos by 3.9

The sim sides with Broncos: a 3.9-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (22-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Kahlil Benson (Chiefs) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 57% of reps for 3.8 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 4.9 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 56% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 4.0 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 25 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 4.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs' quarterback should have time; the Broncos win just 50% of reps for 9.4 sacks a game, led by Jonah Elliss (3.3 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game).
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Chiefs win just 50% of reps for 5.7 sacks a game, with George Karlaftis (2.4 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Broncos lean on Jaylen Waddle, good for 8.3 catches and 74 yds a game while breaking open on 55% of his routes.
  • Rashee Rice headlines the Chiefs' receiving corps — 5.9 catches for 37 yds a game on 44% separation.
  • Few balls get past Alohi Gilman (Chiefs), who yields separation on 35% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Broncos' run game leans on J.K. Dobbins — 11 carries, 56 yds a game (4.9 a carry), finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Chiefs hand it to Kenneth Walker III early and often, 13 carries for 64 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -3.9
Market lineKC -2.5
Sim total40
Market total43.5
DEN by 3.9 (66% to win) Projected total 40 pts Bo Nix ~238 pass yds (250+ 44%) Kenneth Walker III ~64 rush yds (70+ 30%) Jaylen Waddle ~99 rec yds, 7.7 rec (70+ 78%)