DEN @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
DEN Broncos
20
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DEN50%20
CAR50%20
20
CAR Panthers

Projected Team Stats

DEN
CAR
50% Win Probability 50%
324 Total Yards 335
233 Passing Yards 243
90 Rushing Yards 92
3.1 Sacks 2.2
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix240 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.1 rec, 96 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.6 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young260 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.7 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.1 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD

Panthers by 0.0

The sim sides with Panthers: a 0.0-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (20-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Monroe Freeling (Panthers) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 57% of reps for 2.9 sacks and 6.7 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 50% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, Jaelan Phillips (2.7 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 52% win rate yields only 6.7 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game, led by Nik Bonitto (2.9 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan should find soft spots all day, open 53% of the time for 61 yds a game.
  • The Broncos will live and die with Jaylen Waddle, who comes open 51% of the time (56 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Devin Lloyd (Panthers) travels and erases — only 34% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Chuba Hubbard: 45 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the Panthers, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • J.K. Dobbins sets the tempo for the Broncos — 48 yds a game on the ground at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

CAR by 0.0 (50% to win) Projected total 40 pts Bryce Young ~260 pass yds (250+ 52%) J.K. Dobbins ~48 rush yds (70+ 10%) Jaylen Waddle ~96 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 76%)