DEN @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DEN Broncos
22
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DEN62%22
ARZ38%19
19
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
MARKET DEN -4 · O/U 43

Projected Team Stats

DEN
ARZ
62% Win Probability 38%
363 Total Yards 314
253 Passing Yards 252
110 Rushing Yards 62
2.4 Sacks 2.3
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DEN
PASS Bo Nix261 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle7.3 rec, 102 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.7 rec, 52 yds
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love25 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.2 rec, 97 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Trey McBride4.9 rec, 49 yds, 0.6 TD

Broncos by 2.6

The sim sides with Broncos: a 2.6-point edge and a 62% win rate over 50 runs (22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nik Bonitto (Broncos) vs Jayden Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Nik Bonitto, winning 56% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 6.0 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Riley Moss (Broncos) - winner: Riley Moss, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
In the Trenches
  • The Broncos get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.9 sacks a game), with Nik Bonitto (2.3 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.9 sacks a game — Josh Sweat (3.0 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaylen Waddle should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 65 yds a game.
  • Michael Wilson is the engine of the Cardinals' passing game — 80 yds a game on 46% separation.
  • On the back end, Talanoa Hufanga (Broncos) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 41% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Broncos ride J.K. Dobbins: 12 carries, 49 yds a game (4.0 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Jeremiyah Love sets the tempo for the Cardinals — 25 yds a game on the ground at 2.7 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDEN -2.6
Market lineDEN -4
Sim total41
Market total43
DEN by 2.6 (62% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jacoby Brissett ~265 pass yds (250+ 56%) J.K. Dobbins ~49 rush yds (70+ 18%) Jaylen Waddle ~102 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 76%)