DAL @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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DAL Cowboys
29
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DAL66%29
IND34%23
23
IND Colts

Projected Team Stats

DAL
IND
66% Win Probability 34%
399 Total Yards 366
279 Passing Yards 258
120 Rushing Yards 108
1.7 Sacks 2.2
0.9 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.7 rec, 81 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.6 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones269 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor69 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Josh Downs5.6 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.3 rec, 60 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 5.5

Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 66% of them, by 5.5 on average (29-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Camryn Bynum (Colts) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 4.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Charvarius Ward (Colts) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 62% of routes for 6.9/9.0, 66 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Josh Downs (Colts) vs Ameer Speed (Cowboys) - winner: Josh Downs, open on 58% of routes for 7.3/9.7, 60 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 50% of reps for 3.6 sacks a game, led by Rashan Gary (2.7 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game).
  • The Cowboys' line should hold up: the Colts win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.5 sacks and 20.1 pressures a game — Laiatu Latu (1.6 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys' aerial attack runs through CeeDee Lamb (66 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
  • Look for Josh Downs to eat: 7.3 catches and 60 yds a game for the Colts.
  • Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Javonte Williams sets the tempo for the Cowboys — 69 yds a game on the ground at 5.7 a carry, finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jonathan Taylor: 69 yds a game at 4.6 a carry for the Colts, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

DAL by 5.5 (66% to win) Projected total 52 pts Dak Prescott ~284 pass yds (250+ 68%) Javonte Williams ~69 rush yds (70+ 38%) CeeDee Lamb ~81 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 48%)