CLV @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
11
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CLV30%11
PIT70%21
21
PIT Steelers

Projected Team Stats

CLV
PIT
30% Win Probability 70%
219 Total Yards 315
167 Passing Yards 214
52 Rushing Yards 101
1.8 Sacks 3.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson193 pass yds, 0.4 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins27 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Denzel Boston4.9 rec, 72 yds, 0.1 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.3 rec, 34 yds
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers212 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren66 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.3 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Roman Wilson2.8 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 9.6

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 70% of them, by 9.6 on average (21-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Denzel Ward (Browns) - winner: Denzel Ward, holding him to 45 yds on just 39% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Grant Delpit (Browns) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.8 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.0 sacks a game — Alex Highsmith (2.3 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.2 sacks a game), Jared Verse (0.7 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for D.K. Metcalf to eat: 5.6 catches and 45 yds a game for the Steelers.
  • Denzel Boston is the engine of the Browns' passing game — 47 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Denzel Ward (Browns) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 34% of routes — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren is the workhorse for the Steelers, churning 66 yds a game at 5.8 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 11 carries, 27 yds a game (2.4 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

PIT by 9.6 (70% to win) Projected total 32 pts Aaron Rodgers ~212 pass yds (250+ 18%) Jaylen Warren ~66 rush yds (70+ 40%) Denzel Boston ~72 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 40%)