CLV @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
16
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CLV44%16
NO56%19
19
NO Saints

Projected Team Stats

CLV
NO
44% Win Probability 56%
304 Total Yards 299
222 Passing Yards 256
82 Rushing Yards 43
2.2 Sacks 3.1
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson244 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.7 rec, 94 yds, 0.6 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.7 rec, 42 yds
NO
PASS Tyler Shough267 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara16 rush yds
REC Chris Olave7.1 rec, 99 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD

Saints by 2.5

Across 50 simulations, Saints come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 2.5 (19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Kaden Elliss (Saints) - winner: Kaden Elliss, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Denzel Boston (Browns) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Denzel Boston, open on 59% of routes for 6.1/9.5, 65 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.3 sacks a game (Carl Granderson (1.8 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Browns — a 50% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 16.2 pressures a game, with Jared Verse (1.1 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Chris Olave's show for the Saints: 84 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Denzel Boston's show for the Browns: 65 yds a game, open on 59% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Carson Schwesinger (Browns): 45% separation allowed, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Saints lean on Alvin Kamara, 8 carries for 16 yds a game at 2.0 a carry.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 13 carries, 40 yds a game (3.1 a carry), with his best work off right tackle into a stout front.

Model vs Market

NO by 2.5 (56% to win) Projected total 35 pts Tyler Shough ~267 pass yds (250+ 64%) Chris Olave ~99 rec yds, 7.1 rec (70+ 72%)