CIN @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
26
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CIN68%26
CAR32%22
22
CAR Panthers

Projected Team Stats

CIN
CAR
68% Win Probability 32%
394 Total Yards 356
323 Passing Yards 277
72 Rushing Yards 79
3.4 Sacks 1.6
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow322 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chase Brown48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.6 rec, 99 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.9 rec, 72 yds, 0.6 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young300 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard40 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.0 rec, 87 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.5 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 4.4

The sim sides with Bengals: a 4.4-point edge and a 68% win rate over 50 runs (26-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Luke Fortner (Panthers) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Tacario Davis, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Will Lee III (Panthers) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 64% of routes for 5.8/7.5, 51 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' line should hold up: the Bengals win just 51% of their reps, mustering 6.2 sacks and 28.2 pressures a game — Boye Mafe (2.3 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 51% of reps for 3.7 sacks a game, led by Jaelan Phillips (3.0 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Bengals to feed Ja'Marr Chase: 9.3 catches for 83 yds a game, open 56% of the time.
  • Through the air it is Tetairoa McMillan's show for the Panthers: 70 yds a game, open on 55% of routes.
  • Devin Lloyd (Panthers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 38% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals' run game leans on Chase Brown — 13 carries, 48 yds a game (3.8 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Panthers ride Chuba Hubbard: 13 carries, 40 yds a game (3.2 a carry), with his best work to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

CIN by 4.4 (68% to win) Projected total 48 pts Joe Burrow ~322 pass yds (250+ 90%) Chase Brown ~48 rush yds (70+ 14%) Ja'Marr Chase ~99 rec yds, 7.6 rec (70+ 78%)