CIN @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CIN Bengals
18
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CIN26%18
BLT74%24
24
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -3 · O/U 51

Projected Team Stats

CIN
BLT
26% Win Probability 74%
297 Total Yards 389
260 Passing Yards 239
37 Rushing Yards 150
2.8 Sacks 1.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow271 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Chase Brown22 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.4 rec, 74 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.5 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson246 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry81 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman3.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 6.2

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 74% of them, by 6.2 on average (24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Cam Jurgens (Ravens) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 58% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 61% of routes for 6.5/8.3, 69 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (3.5 sacks a game), with Nnamdi Madubuike (2.7 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Ravens' quarterback should have time; the Bengals win just 51% of reps for 5.2 sacks a game, led by Boye Mafe (1.9 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers headlines the Ravens' receiving corps — 6.5 catches for 69 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Expect the Bengals to feed Ja'Marr Chase: 7.8 catches for 59 yds a game, open 55% of the time.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 39% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Ravens ride Derrick Henry: 18 carries, 81 yds a game (4.5 a carry), churning to the right side.
  • Chase Brown is the workhorse for the Bengals, churning 22 yds a game at 2.1 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -6.2
Market lineBLT -3
Sim total42
Market total51
BLT by 6.2 (74% to win) Projected total 42 pts Joe Burrow ~271 pass yds (250+ 70%) Derrick Henry ~81 rush yds (70+ 46%) Zay Flowers ~80 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 56%)