CIN @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
CIN Bengals
27
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CIN40%27
ATL60%30
30
ATL Falcons

Projected Team Stats

CIN
ATL
40% Win Probability 60%
396 Total Yards 413
336 Passing Yards 245
60 Rushing Yards 168
1.2 Sacks 1.3
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow340 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Chase Brown36 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.2 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.5 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.238 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson109 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Drake London7.0 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.7 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD

Falcons by 3.5

Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 3.5 (30-27).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.9 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 66% of routes for 9.2/11.6, 79 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Harold Perkins Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Harold Perkins Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: Drake London, open on 63% of routes for 9.7/11.5, 90 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs CJ Henderson (Falcons) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 67% of routes for 5.9/7.7, 56 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Falcons win just 50% of reps for 3.3 sacks a game, Cameron Thomas (1.4 sacks, 1.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 51% win rate yields only 3.1 sacks and 12.5 pressures a game, with Boye Mafe (0.7 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 63% of routes for 90 yds a game.
  • Ja'Marr Chase headlines the Bengals' receiving corps — 9.2 catches for 79 yds a game on 66% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Josh Newton (Bengals): 43% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons' run game leans on Bijan Robinson — 16 carries, 109 yds a game (6.9 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Chase Brown carries the load for the Bengals, 12 carries for 36 yds a game at 3.2 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

ATL by 3.5 (60% to win) Projected total 57 pts Joe Burrow ~340 pass yds (250+ 86%) Bijan Robinson ~109 rush yds (70+ 82%) Drake London ~97 rec yds, 7.0 rec (70+ 78%)