CHI @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CHI Bears
18
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CHI14%18
DET86%32
32
DET Lions

Projected Team Stats

CHI
DET
14% Win Probability 86%
333 Total Yards 437
213 Passing Yards 283
120 Rushing Yards 153
1.9 Sacks 3.3
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams236 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift53 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.1 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.8 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff265 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs96 rush yds, 1.2 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Sam LaPorta4.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.7 TD

Lions by 13.1

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 13.1 and winning 86% of 50 sims (projected 32-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 6.2 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Lions win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.7 sacks and 27.7 pressures a game — Aidan Hutchinson (4.6 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 50% of reps for 3.9 sacks a game, with Montez Sweat (0.8 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown is the engine of the Lions' passing game — 66 yds a game on 52% separation.
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 5.5 catches and 53 yds a game for the Bears.
  • Brian Branch (Lions) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 38% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, 16 carries for 96 yds a game at 6.2 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of D'Andre Swift: 53 yds a game at 4.0 a carry for the Bears, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DET by 13.1 (86% to win) Projected total 50 pts Jared Goff ~265 pass yds (250+ 60%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~96 rush yds (70+ 72%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~78 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 62%)