CHI @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CHI Bears
26
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CHI58%26
BUF42%23
23
BUF Bills

Projected Team Stats

CHI
BUF
58% Win Probability 42%
386 Total Yards 341
240 Passing Yards 192
146 Rushing Yards 150
2.8 Sacks 2.5
1.1 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams244 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift65 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.3 rec, 84 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Luther Burden III4.0 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen205 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH James Cook71 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.5 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dalton Kincaid2.7 rec, 35 yds, 0.4 TD

Bears by 2.8

Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.8 (26-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: James Cook, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • D'Andre Swift (Bears) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: D'Andre Swift, 4.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Rome Odunze (Bears) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Rome Odunze, open on 61% of routes for 6.2/9.2, 62 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.7 sacks a game), led by Montez Sweat (2.1 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game).
  • The Bears' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 49% of reps for 5.2 sacks a game, led by Greg Rousseau (1.9 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Rome Odunze is the engine of the Bears' passing game — 62 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Through the air it is DJ Moore's show for the Bills: 59 yds a game, open on 47% of routes.
  • Few balls get past Devin Bush (Bears), who yields separation on 40% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears hand it to D'Andre Swift early and often, 14 carries for 65 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, churning off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Bills hand it to James Cook early and often, 14 carries for 71 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

CHI by 2.8 (58% to win) Projected total 50 pts Caleb Williams ~244 pass yds (250+ 52%) James Cook ~71 rush yds (70+ 46%) Rome Odunze ~84 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 56%)