CAR @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
22
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CAR62%22
TB38%18
18
TB Buccaneers

Projected Team Stats

CAR
TB
62% Win Probability 38%
316 Total Yards 316
242 Passing Yards 205
75 Rushing Yards 110
2.9 Sacks 2.9
1.0 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young253 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard39 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.8 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield222 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving60 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Panthers by 3.8

Across 50 simulations, Panthers come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 3.8 (22-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Antoine Winfield Jr., holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Devin Lloyd (Panthers) - winner: Bucky Irving, 4.7 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Panthers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 27.2 pressures a game, Jaelan Phillips (3.3 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Panthers' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 25.4 pressures a game — Yaya Diaby (1.8 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Panthers will live and die with Tetairoa McMillan, who comes open 56% of the time (64 yds a game).
  • Through the air it is Emeka Egbuka's show for the Buccaneers: 47 yds a game, open on 46% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Mike Jackson (Panthers): 32% separation allowed, adding 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Panthers' run game leans on Chuba Hubbard — 12 carries, 39 yds a game (3.3 a carry) into a stout front.
  • Bucky Irving is the workhorse for the Buccaneers, churning 60 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, finding room off right tackle and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

CAR by 3.8 (62% to win) Projected total 41 pts Bryce Young ~253 pass yds (250+ 44%) Bucky Irving ~60 rush yds (70+ 30%) Tetairoa McMillan ~81 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 52%)