CAR @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
CAR Panthers
21
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CAR48%21
GB52%21
21
GB Packers

Projected Team Stats

CAR
GB
48% Win Probability 52%
352 Total Yards 326
261 Passing Yards 279
91 Rushing Yards 46
1.3 Sacks 3.0
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young277 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard48 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.1 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jalen Coker5.1 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love281 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd16 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Christian Watson6.6 rec, 100 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Matthew Golden5.1 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD

Packers by 0.4

The sim sides with Packers: a 0.4-point edge and a 52% win rate over 50 runs (21-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Lukas Van Ness (Packers) vs Monroe Freeling (Panthers) - winner: Lukas Van Ness, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 6.4 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jaelan Phillips (Panthers) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Jaelan Phillips, winning 56% of reps for 2.4 sacks and 4.8 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 58% of routes for 7.3/10.2, 65 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.9 sacks a game), Lukas Van Ness (2.5 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 3.0 sacks a game (Jaelan Phillips (2.4 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Packers to feed Christian Watson: 8.6 catches for 86 yds a game, open 57% of the time.
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the go-to for the Panthers, separating on 58% of routes for 65 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Mike Jackson (Panthers): 39% separation allowed, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Packers' run game leans on MarShawn Lloyd — 10 carries, 16 yds a game (1.7 a carry) into a stout front.
  • The Panthers' run game leans on Chuba Hubbard — 14 carries, 48 yds a game (3.5 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

GB by 0.4 (52% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jordan Love ~281 pass yds (250+ 74%) Chuba Hubbard ~48 rush yds (70+ 12%) Christian Watson ~100 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 82%)