BUF @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 9 slate
BUF Bills
19
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BUF34%19
MIN66%22
22
MIN Vikings

Projected Team Stats

BUF
MIN
34% Win Probability 66%
309 Total Yards 316
188 Passing Yards 222
120 Rushing Yards 94
2.6 Sacks 2.8
1.2 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen204 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH James Cook61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.1 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray233 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones45 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.5 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jauan Jennings4.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD

Vikings by 2.9

Run it 50 times and Vikings win 66% of them, by 2.9 on average (22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) - winner: Isaiah Rodgers, holding him to 39 yds on just 37% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Joe Huber (Vikings) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 4.6 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: James Cook, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 63% of routes for 5.8/7.4, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.5 sacks and 26.5 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (2.8 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Bills may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.6 sacks a game, and Greg Rousseau (1.5 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Justin Jefferson is the go-to for the Vikings, separating on 63% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 4.9 catches for 39 yds a game on 37% separation.
  • In coverage, Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) travels and erases — only 32% separation allowed — and 0.6 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Vikings hand it to Aaron Jones early and often, 13 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • The Bills hand it to James Cook early and often, 13 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

MIN by 2.9 (66% to win) Projected total 41 pts Kyler Murray ~233 pass yds (250+ 34%) James Cook ~61 rush yds (70+ 28%) DJ Moore ~65 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 40%)