BLT @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BLT Ravens
19
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BLT62%19
PIT38%17
17
PIT Steelers

Projected Team Stats

BLT
PIT
62% Win Probability 38%
312 Total Yards 306
198 Passing Yards 225
114 Rushing Yards 81
1.7 Sacks 2.6
1.0 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson208 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.7 rec, 42 yds, 0.1 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers231 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.9 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.5 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 1.7

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 62% of them, by 1.7 on average (19-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Keeanu Benton (Steelers) vs Vega Ioane (Ravens) - winner: Keeanu Benton, winning 56% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.4 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Ravens — a 49% win rate yields only 3.7 sacks and 10.8 pressures a game, Trenton Simpson (0.7 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Steelers win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.0 sacks and 28.9 pressures a game, and Alex Highsmith (1.7 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers is the go-to for the Ravens, separating on 61% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is D.K. Metcalf's show for the Steelers: 43 yds a game, open on 42% of routes.
  • In coverage, Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) travels and erases — only 39% separation allowed, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 60 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Jaylen Warren sets the tempo for the Steelers — 55 yds a game on the ground at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

BLT by 1.7 (62% to win) Projected total 36 pts Aaron Rodgers ~231 pass yds (250+ 34%) Derrick Henry ~60 rush yds (70+ 32%) Zay Flowers ~75 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 44%)