BLT @ BUF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
BLT Ravens
25
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BLT72%25
BUF28%17
17
BUF Bills

Projected Team Stats

BLT
BUF
72% Win Probability 28%
381 Total Yards 265
226 Passing Yards 165
155 Rushing Yards 100
2.8 Sacks 2.0
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson227 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry77 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.7 rec, 41 yds, 0.3 TD
BUF
PASS Josh Allen186 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH James Cook50 rush yds
REC DJ Moore5.1 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.1 rec, 33 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 8.4

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 72% of them, by 8.4 on average (25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Joe Andreessen (Bills) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 61% of routes for 5.1/7.4, 52 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.7 sacks a game (Trenton Simpson (1.6 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Bills win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.1 sacks and 24.4 pressures a game — Greg Rousseau (1.5 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens will live and die with Zay Flowers, who comes open 61% of the time (52 yds a game).
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 6.7 catches for 50 yds a game on 48% separation.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens hand it to Derrick Henry early and often, 17 carries for 77 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, finding room to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 50 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

BLT by 8.4 (72% to win) Projected total 42 pts Lamar Jackson ~227 pass yds (250+ 34%) Derrick Henry ~77 rush yds (70+ 48%) Zay Flowers ~74 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 52%)