ATL @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 8 slate
ATL Falcons
26
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ATL72%26
TB28%17
17
TB Buccaneers

Projected Team Stats

ATL
TB
72% Win Probability 28%
376 Total Yards 302
220 Passing Yards 216
156 Rushing Yards 86
2.4 Sacks 1.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.217 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson105 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Drake London6.7 rec, 86 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.6 rec, 46 yds, 0.4 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield232 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka5.0 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.1 TD

Falcons by 9.0

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 72% of them, by 9.0 on average (26-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Drake London, open on 65% of routes for 7.7/10.7, 70 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 49% win rate yields only 4.7 sacks and 26.2 pressures a game, Samson Ebukam (1.2 sacks, 6.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Buccaneers — a 51% win rate, 2.9 sacks and 10.1 pressures a game (Yaya Diaby (0.5 sacks, 4.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Falcons' aerial attack runs through Drake London (70 yds a game, open on 65% of routes).
  • Emeka Egbuka is the engine of the Buccaneers' passing game — 52 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • On the back end, Jessie Bates III (Falcons) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 43% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons hand it to Bijan Robinson early and often, 16 carries for 105 yds a game at 6.4 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Bucky Irving carries the load for the Buccaneers, 13 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

ATL by 9.0 (72% to win) Projected total 43 pts Baker Mayfield ~232 pass yds (250+ 36%) Bijan Robinson ~105 rush yds (70+ 78%) Drake London ~86 rec yds, 6.7 rec (70+ 72%)