ATL @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
ATL Falcons
28
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ATL72%28
MIN28%21
21
MIN Vikings

Projected Team Stats

ATL
MIN
72% Win Probability 28%
383 Total Yards 307
199 Passing Yards 218
185 Rushing Yards 89
2.7 Sacks 1.3
0.9 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.192 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson136 rush yds, 1.8 TD
REC Drake London6.0 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.4 rec, 36 yds, 0.3 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray235 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jauan Jennings3.8 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 7.2

Falcons are the pick here, favoured by 7.2 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 28-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.5 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Justin Jefferson, open on 60% of routes for 5.8/7.5, 53 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 50% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 27.6 pressures a game, led by Samson Ebukam (1.2 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game).
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Vikings win just 49% of their reps, mustering 3.1 sacks and 12.6 pressures a game — Dallas Turner (2.3 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Drake London should find soft spots all day, open 56% of the time for 59 yds a game.
  • Justin Jefferson headlines the Vikings' receiving corps — 5.8 catches for 53 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Theo Jackson (Vikings) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 38% of his coverage snaps — and 0.0 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons' run game leans on Bijan Robinson — 16 carries, 136 yds a game (8.5 a carry), with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Vikings' run game leans on Aaron Jones — 14 carries, 48 yds a game (3.5 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

ATL by 7.2 (72% to win) Projected total 49 pts Kyler Murray ~235 pass yds (250+ 34%) Bijan Robinson ~136 rush yds (70+ 80%) Drake London ~79 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 56%)