ARZ @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
18
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ARZ36%18
SEA64%24
24
SEA Seahawks

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
SEA
36% Win Probability 64%
306 Total Yards 363
245 Passing Yards 260
61 Rushing Yards 103
2.1 Sacks 2.0
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett258 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love25 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.6 rec, 100 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Trey McBride4.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.5 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold257 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson46 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.2 rec, 100 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 5.9

Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 64% of them, by 5.9 on average (24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 62% of routes for 9.2/11.5, 87 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 50% win rate yields only 4.1 sacks and 17.0 pressures a game, led by DeMarcus Lawrence (0.9 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cardinals — a 49% win rate, 4.6 sacks and 23.7 pressures a game — Josh Sweat (2.1 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks lean on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, good for 9.2 catches and 87 yds a game while breaking open on 62% of his routes.
  • Michael Wilson is the go-to for the Cardinals, separating on 41% of routes for 67 yds a game.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 35% of his coverage snaps, adding 1.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Emanuel Wilson: 46 yds a game at 3.4 a carry for the Seahawks, doing his damage to the right side.
  • The Cardinals hand it to Jeremiyah Love early and often, 9 carries for 25 yds a game at 2.8 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

SEA by 5.9 (64% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jacoby Brissett ~258 pass yds (250+ 56%) Emanuel Wilson ~46 rush yds (70+ 16%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~100 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 76%)