ARZ @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
20
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ARZ14%20
DAL86%30
30
DAL Cowboys

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
DAL
14% Win Probability 86%
352 Total Yards 408
281 Passing Yards 303
71 Rushing Yards 105
2.2 Sacks 2.1
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett293 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love28 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.6 rec, 103 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Trey McBride4.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.5 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott299 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams64 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.9 rec, 87 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.5 TD

Cowboys by 9.3

Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 86% of them, by 9.3 on average (30-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Rashan Gary (Cowboys) vs Jayden Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Rashan Gary, winning 55% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 8.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Javonte Williams, 4.9 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Caleb Downs, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 60% of routes for 8.0/9.7, 79 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Max Melton (Cardinals) - winner: George Pickens, open on 62% of routes for 5.3/6.4, 53 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals' line should hold up: the Cowboys win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.3 sacks and 17.9 pressures a game, and Rashan Gary (3.4 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 50% win rate yields only 4.6 sacks and 19.9 pressures a game, with Josh Sweat (2.9 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Cowboys to feed CeeDee Lamb: 8.0 catches for 79 yds a game, open 60% of the time.
  • The Cardinals will live and die with Michael Wilson, who comes open 44% of the time (79 yds a game).
  • Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 38% of routes, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Cowboys ride Javonte Williams: 13 carries, 64 yds a game (4.9 a carry), churning off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Cardinals hand it to Jeremiyah Love early and often, 10 carries for 28 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

DAL by 9.3 (86% to win) Projected total 50 pts Dak Prescott ~299 pass yds (250+ 78%) Javonte Williams ~64 rush yds (70+ 34%) Michael Wilson ~103 rec yds, 8.6 rec (70+ 74%)