You can lose a draft before you make a pick. The Bears did it at the trade table, overpaying to chase players the board did not price nearly as high.

So much rides on Caleb Williams that the rest of the class almost grades on a curve behind him. The Smith pick reads as want over need, and the roster will feel it at edge rusher, interior defensive lineman and other spots. For all the activity, edge rusher went untouched, which is hard to explain.

Reaching for Powers-Johnson left real value on the table behind him. That is a linebacker worth more than the slot they spent on him, plainly.

Bottom line, they will need several of these picks to beat their grades just to break even.