You can lose a draft before you make a pick. The Bears did it at the trade table, overpaying to chase players the board did not price nearly as high. Too much went sideways, and the D is the honest tally.

They have staked the next five years on Caleb Williams, which is the only story that really matters here. The Bears indulged a want in Smith while a need in edge rusher, interior defensive lineman and other spots stayed open. If this class has a fault line, it runs straight through edge rusher.

The Van Pran pick is the one the value grade keeps tripping over. Landing Gray that late papers over a lot of smaller sins.

Bottom line, they will need several of these picks to beat their grades just to break even, and edge rusher is still a hole.