You can lose a draft before you make a pick. The Falcons did it at the trade table, overpaying to chase players the board did not price nearly as high.

Whatever Jayden Daniels becomes, the front office has tied its fortunes to the answer. If Crumedy pans out, nobody remembers the price. If not, this is the pick they hear about.

They punted on running back, and it is the miss that keeps the grade honest. They are betting the present roster is worth a lighter draft next spring.

There is no soft landing here: they fought the board and left running back open, and the grade is the bill.