You can lose a draft before you make a pick. The Bears did it at the trade table, overpaying to chase players the board did not price nearly as high.

So much rides on Caleb Williams that the rest of the class almost grades on a curve behind him. If Murphy pans out, nobody remembers the price. If not, this is the pick they hear about. If this class has a fault line, it runs straight through cornerback.

Edge rusher is handled and the depth chart looks a good deal healthier for it.

Bottom line, they will need several of these picks to beat their grades just to break even, and cornerback is still a hole.