Hoosiers' Historic Rise, Seminoles' Stunning Fall Shape Most Unpredictable Season in Memory

The Walk-On Wonder: UCLA's Defensive Sensation

Before diving into the playoff race, we must acknowledge one of the season's most remarkable individual stories. UCLA junior linebacker Carson Schwesinger has transformed from walk-on to national defensive standout, leading the FBS in solo tackles with 69 and accumulating 109 total tackles, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, and a forced fumble.

"Any opportunity I was going to get, I was going to try and make the most of it," said Schwesinger, who balances his bioengineering studies with football. "I don't like going in with too many expectations about stats or playing time or whatever. I'm not a huge stats guy."

His rise from scout team standout to semifinalist for both the Burlsworth Trophy and Butkus Award exemplifies college football's capacity for unexpected success stories.

Indiana's Improbable Rise: From Afterthought to Contender

Perhaps no story better exemplifies the unpredictable nature of college football than Indiana's remarkable transformation under first-year coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers moved to 10-0 with a gritty 20-15 victory over Michigan, continuing what might be the most impressive single-season turnaround in college football history.

The victory was particularly special for the Cignetti family, as Natalie Cignetti accepted a marriage proposal on the field following the game. It was a fitting celebration for a program that has completely transformed its identity. Memorial Stadium, once struggling to fill seats, has now hosted three consecutive sellouts, with fans waving towels emblazoned with Cignetti's motto: "Fast, physical, relentless."

Cignetti's impact began with his viral introduction at Assembly Hall, where he boldly declared "Purdue sucks! But so does Michigan and Ohio State!" That momentum has only built throughout the season, leading to a new eight-year, $72 million contract that more than doubled his annual salary.

Notre Dame-Army: A Historic Clash at Yankee Stadium

In what few would have predicted as a meaningful late-season matchup, No. 6 Notre Dame faces No. 19 Army (9-0) at Yankee Stadium in a game with major playoff implications. The Fighting Irish, led by Mitchell Evans and a dynamic offense, have been dominant since their early-season stumble, winning eight straight with seven victories coming by 18 or more points.

Army presents a unique challenge, having already clinched a berth in the AAC championship game against Tulane. Coach Jeff Monken has downplayed the historical significance, noting, "If I'm telling our guys this is the biggest [Notre Dame] game since 1946, I mean, how does that help our team win?"

SEC Chaos: Multiple Paths to Atlanta

The SEC race remains delightfully complex as we approach the final weeks. No. 3 Texas and No. 15 Texas A&M lead with one conference loss each, but several scenarios could create a six-way tie for first place if contenders including No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 10 Georgia, and No. 11 Tennessee win out.

Will Campbell and LSU's loss to Florida last week eliminated the possibility of an eight-team tie, but the conference could still need to dig deep into its tiebreaker procedures. The fourth tiebreaker – cumulative conference winning percentage of all SEC opponents – could become crucial, where Alabama currently holds an advantage with a .509 opponent winning percentage.

The Great FSU Collapse

Florida State's stunning fall from grace has become one of college football's most dramatic collapses. The Seminoles have experienced the third-largest season-to-season win percentage drop in college football history, falling from 13-1 in 2023 to 1-9 this year.

Only three teams have ever experienced a larger decline in win percentage: 1917 Colorado State, 1919 Colorado Mines, and 2012 Southern Miss. The Seminoles have fallen from ninth in SP+ rankings to 92nd, marking one of the most dramatic statistical declines of the modern era.

Historical precedent suggests FSU won't remain this low for long. Of ten comparable historical collapses, six teams bounced back within three years, though only four of those rebounds occurred under the same coach.

CFP Rankings Controversy

The latest College Football Playoff rankings have sparked considerable debate, particularly regarding Miami's position at No. 8. The Hurricanes dropped despite being idle, while Alabama moved up after defeating Mercer. Miami's resume includes four wins over SP+ top-40 teams – matching Alabama's total and doubling Notre Dame's count.

This movement has led to speculation about the committee's view of the ACC, particularly following Florida State's exclusion last year. The conference appears to be fighting an uphill battle for respect in the committee's eyes.

Bottom 10: Tracking the Struggles

While much attention focuses on the top teams, several programs are experiencing historically difficult seasons. Kent State (0-11) remains on track to become the first FBS team to go winless in a non-COVID season since 2019. Southern Miss has suffered consecutive blowout losses, falling 37-3 to Marshall and 58-3 to Texas State.

Louisville's shocking loss to Stanford has earned them a spot in the "Coveted Fifth Spot" of the Bottom 10 rankings, with their late-game management drawing particular scrutiny. The Cardinals managed to lose despite having first-and-10 in Stanford territory with 20 seconds remaining and a timeout in their pocket.

Players to Watch in Week 13

Several key players could make or break their team's playoff hopes this weekend:

- Will Howard (Ohio State) - Must protect the ball better after costly turnovers against Penn State
- Noah Fifita (Arizona) - Leading a surprising late-season surge
- Trevor Etienne (Georgia) - The dynamic transfer running back faces Ole Miss
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama) - Leads the Tide into a crucial road test at Oklahoma

Week 13 Key Matchups and Predictions

The upcoming weekend features several games with major playoff implications:

1. No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-14.5)
- The Buckeyes are dealing with offensive line injuries, including the loss of center Seth McLaughlin

2. No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Army (-14.5)
- The Irish are expected to handle Army similarly to their dominant win over Navy

3. No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3)
- BYU looks to bounce back after a surprising home loss to Kansas

4. No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma (-13.5)
- A crucial road test for the Tide's playoff hopes

5. No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida (-10)
- The Rebels need a win to keep their SEC title hopes alive

The Group of Five Battle

Boise State sits in prime position to secure one of the opening-round byes as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. The current rankings include four teams from outside the traditional power conferences: Boise State, Army, Tulane, and UNLV. This marks only the third time in history that four non-power conference teams (excluding the Pac-12) have been ranked simultaneously.

The battle between Boise State and SMU for the Group of Five's highest ranking could have major implications for playoff seeding. The Broncos currently hold the edge, but SMU could potentially leapfrog them with an ACC championship.

Looking Ahead

With rivalry games and conference championships looming, the stage is set for a dramatic conclusion to an already historic season. The expanded playoff format has added new intrigue to conference races and heightened the importance of every late-season matchup.

The questions are numerous: Can Indiana complete their fairy-tale run? Will Army crash the playoff party? Can anyone catch Texas in the SEC? Will Florida State find any redemption in their final games?

As we enter the final stretch, the only certainty is that more surprises await in what has already been a season for the record books. The 2024 season continues to redefine what we thought possible in college football, from historic rises to unprecedented falls, setting the stage for what promises to be an unforgettable conclusion.