History-Defining Gambles- The Impact of Draft-Day Trades on NFL Franchises
For many fans, Draft Day is the NFL at its most electric - a high-stakes event where franchises try to secure the kind of talent that could redefine their future.
While fans hope their team makes the right call, NFL executives live the draft like no one else. Trading away multiple first-round picks for a young prospect can feel as risky as one of the world’s richest gamblers going all-in on a poker hand - but the long-term impact can shape a franchise’s legacy.
Draft Trades: Gamble or Investment?
Draft-day trades are often viewed as strategic investments, but they bear a striking resemblance to gambling. These decisions are based entirely on projection; no matter how detailed the analysis, there's no way to guarantee a player’s future performance. It’s a calculated risk, but a risk nonetheless.
When a promising prospect appears, franchises often trade away current and future picks to move up and secure him. If the player underdelivers, the team is left with a disappointing investment, and fewer tools to rebuild.
According to The Casino Wizard, the odds of winning three even-odd bets in a row in roulette are about 1 in 10. But when it comes to trading away a franchise’s future draft picks, there’s no way to calculate the risk with certainty. In that sense, draft trades can be far riskier than a spin of the roulette wheel.
The Ones that Shaped the Future: Legendary Draft-Day Trades
Hitting the jackpot in a casino is rare and thrilling. In the NFL, a successful draft trade can have the same effect, capable of transforming a franchise overnight. Here are two trades that proved to be historic victories, akin to winning the lottery.
Chiefs Trade for Patrick Mahomes (2017)
In 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs moved up from the 27th to the 10th overall pick by trading their first-rounder, a third-round pick, and their 2018 first-round pick to the Buffalo Bills. With that pick, they selected Patrick Mahomes.
It was a bold move, but one that completely transformed the franchise. Mahomes went on to become one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, leading the Chiefs to three Super Bowl titles and earning multiple MVP honors. This trade is now considered one of the best in modern NFL history.
49ers Trade for Jerry Rice (1985)
Back in 1985, the San Francisco 49ers traded their first and second-round picks to the New England Patriots to move up to the 16th spot in the first round. Head coach Bill Walsh was determined to draft Jerry Rice, a relatively unknown wide receiver from Mississippi Valley State.
That gamble paid off. Rice became the most prolific receiver in league history, setting records that still stand today. He helped lead the 49ers to three Super Bowl victories and forever changed the position.
The Ones That Got Away: Disastrous Draft Trades
Trades are, by nature, high-risk transactions. And just as some go down in history as masterstrokes, others become cautionary tales. Here are two of the worst gambles in recent NFL memory.
Bears Trade for Mitchell Trubisky (2017)
The Chicago Bears held the third overall pick in 2017 but traded up one spot to number two in a deal with the 49ers. In exchange, they gave up the third pick, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder, and a 2018 third-round pick - all to select quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
The move proved costly. Trubisky never lived up to expectations, while Patrick Mahomes -picked later by the Chiefs- became a generational talent. It stands as one of the most criticized trades of all time.
Commanders Trade for Robert Griffin III (2012)
In 2012, Washington (then the Redskins) moved from the sixth to the second overall pick to draft Robert Griffin III. They gave the St. Louis Rams three first-round picks (2012–2014) and a second-rounder to make it happen.
Though Griffin shined as a rookie, injuries derailed his career. The lack of first-round picks crippled Washington’s ability to build around him, leaving the team in a prolonged period of mediocrity. The gamble never paid off. In fact, it cost the franchise dearly.
The Draft: A Different Kind of Thrill
In our view, draft-day trades are very much a form of gambling. In fact, they may be even riskier than putting money on a blackjack hand. A poorly calculated trade doesn’t just affect a single person’s bankroll: it can alter the trajectory of an entire organization.
In any case, whether it’s Draft Day or a high-stakes poker game, one truth remains: the biggest wins belong to those willing to take the risk.