Tanking in the NFL- Effective or Not?

While tanking is more widely discussed in leagues like the NBA, where a lottery system determines draft order, its presence and effectiveness in the NFL remain contentious. 

With the league’s reverse-order draft policy, the worst-performing teams are guaranteed the highest draft picks, incentivizing some franchises to embrace short-term failure for long-term gain. However, tanking in the NFL presents unique challenges due to its structure, fan expectations, and competitive dynamics. This article explores the effectiveness of tanking in the NFL, weighing its advantages and disadvantages.

The Concept of Tanking

Tanking is rooted in a simple premise: by sacrificing immediate success, teams can rebuild their rosters with top-tier talent acquired through the draft. In leagues like the NFL, where generational players can significantly impact a franchise's fortunes, securing high draft picks is seen as a pathway to long-term competitiveness. For example, teams have tanked for quarterbacks like Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence, hoping these prospects would transform their franchises.

Unlike the NBA’s weighted lottery system, which introduces uncertainty into draft outcomes, the NFL employs a reverse-order draft system. This guarantees that the team with the worst regular-season record receives the first overall pick. While this policy creates clear incentives for struggling teams to tank, it also raises questions about fairness and competitive integrity.

Challenges of Tanking in the NFL

Tanking in the NFL is inherently more complicated than in other leagues due to several factors:

Short Season: The NFL’s 16-game (now 17-game) regular season makes tanking less predictable compared to leagues with longer schedules like the NBA or MLB. In a shorter season, variance plays a larger role, meaning even teams attempting to tank might accidentally win games or end up with a mediocre record that prevents them from securing top draft picks.

Physical Nature of Football: Unlike basketball or baseball, football is an intensely physical sport where players risk injury every game. Asking athletes to intentionally underperform not only undermines their competitive spirit but also increases their risk of harm due to reduced effort.

Fan Perception: Tanking can alienate fans who expect their teams to compete at full capacity every week. In a league as passionate as the NFL, where fan loyalty drives revenue through ticket sales and merchandise purchases, prolonged losing seasons can damage a franchise’s reputation and financial stability.

Uncertain Draft Outcomes: Even with high draft picks secured through tanking, there is no guarantee that these players will succeed at the professional level. The NFL Draft is notoriously unpredictable; many top prospects fail to meet expectations due to injuries, poor development, or difficulty adapting to elite competition.

Advantages of Tanking

Despite its challenges, tanking offers potential benefits for NFL teams:

Access to Elite Talent: The most obvious advantage of tanking is securing high draft picks that allow teams to select elite prospects. Generational talents like Peyton Manning and Joe Burrow have proven capable of turning struggling franchises into playoff contenders.

Rebuilding Opportunities: Tanking enables teams to reset their rosters and build around young talent on rookie contracts. This approach can create financial flexibility by reducing payroll costs associated with veteran players while investing in long-term growth.

Strategic Planning: Teams that embrace tanking often use it as part of broader rebuilding strategies. By accumulating draft capital and shedding expensive contracts, franchises can position themselves for sustained success over multiple seasons.

Fan Buy-In: While tanking risks alienating fans in the short term, some franchises have successfully marketed their rebuilding efforts as part of a larger vision. For example, Philadelphia 76ers fans rallied behind “The Process” during their team’s deliberate losing streaks in pursuit of future success.

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Notable Cases of Tanking in the NFL

Several instances highlight both the successes and failures of tanking strategies in the NFL:

Miami Dolphins’ “Tank for Tua”: During the 2019 season, allegations surfaced that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross incentivized head coach Brian Flores to lose games for better draft positioning. The team ultimately selected quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick but missed out on Joe Burrow (the first pick). While Tagovailoa has shown promise, Miami’s tanking effort did not yield immediate playoff success.

Indianapolis Colts’ “Suck for Luck”: In 2011, after losing Peyton Manning to injury, the Colts endured a disastrous season that earned them the first overall pick in 2012. They drafted Andrew Luck—a generational quarterback talent—who led them to multiple playoff appearances before his early retirement due to injuries. This case demonstrates how tanking can deliver short-term results but may not guarantee sustained success.

Cleveland Browns’ Rebuild: Between 2016 and 2017, Cleveland embraced one of the most aggressive tanking strategies in modern NFL history by trading away key players and stockpiling draft picks. Their efforts culminated in drafting Baker Mayfield (first overall) and acquiring other young talents like Myles Garrett (first overall in 2017). While these moves improved Cleveland’s roster significantly, inconsistent performance has prevented them from becoming perennial contenders.

Disadvantages of Tanking

While tanking may seem like a viable strategy for teams aiming to rebuild through high draft picks, it comes with significant disadvantages that can outweigh its potential benefits. One of the most glaring issues is the erosion of competitive integrity. 

Tanking undermines the spirit of fair competition by encouraging teams to lose intentionally, which not only damages the league’s credibility as an entertainment product but also erodes trust among players, fans, and stakeholders. Fans invest time, money, and emotional energy into supporting their teams, and deliberate losing can alienate this loyal base, leading to declining attendance, merchandise sales, and overall fan engagement.

Another major drawback is the unpredictability of draft results. Securing a high draft pick does not guarantee success, as history is littered with examples of top prospects who failed to live up to expectations. Players like JaMarcus Russell, who was selected first overall in 2007, serve as cautionary tales for teams that rely too heavily on tanking to secure elite talent. The draft is inherently uncertain, and banking on it as a primary rebuilding strategy can backfire spectacularly.

Additionally, tanking has a negative impact on players. Athletes are inherently competitive, and asking them to underperform goes against their instincts and professional pride. Reduced effort during games can also increase the risk of injuries, as players may not be fully engaged or prepared for the physical demands of the sport. This can harm player development and morale, creating a toxic environment within the team.