When is it worth betting on the NFL?

You have absolutely no idea how to spend your last $200 after a long night of unforgiving roulette on the casino floor. The very fact that you're in the betting box suggests that you may have a hunch, an angle you've been working on, or your brother-in-law just won't keep quiet about the fact that those New York Jets are putting on a killer performance this weekend. Whatever your motivations for placing a bet, one thing should always be clear before you do so... Who do you think will win the game?

Let’s break it down here and now...

Hedge trimming

Since I’ve already brought up the topic of football, let’s get going. There are many professional gamblers who hedge their bets or bet in the opposite way to recoup their initial investment. An example of this would be that you take the Chicago Bears to win the game outright, but then you realise they might lose, so you quickly invest the rest of your money on a bet in favour of their opponent. It's similar to not betting on the craps when you've already invested on the pass line, or like ‘checking the craps’ when you're on a roll – both scenarios are aimed at players who are more worried about losing than they are about maximising their profits. I know it sounds like an oxymoron, right? But it is actually the truth of this betting style. For the purposes of this article, forget about this style.

Let your profits grow

Let's talk about maximising, similar to doubling up in blackjack or counting the odds for your pass-line bet in craps. Both of them require unwavering confidence in your initial bet and only become available once the game starts. This is where time and a little patience start to work in your favour, just like when you use half or quarter bets. Whether you’re betting at a sportsbook or exploring options at Stay Casino with their Stay Casino no deposit bonus, timing and strategic moves can make a huge difference in your winnings. I’m going to share with you three or four football bets that give you the same type of leverage as those other games, but with much more control and advantage against the house.

To get the most out of these bets, I suggest taking your total funds and dividing it by the number you intend to place (3/4). As I mentioned, $200 at the beginning of the article, let's stay with that.

Moneyline (for > -200 teams)

A bet of $50 placed just before the start of the match.
You can’t win if you don’t pick the right team, so before the game starts, place this bet on the team you think will win, with a focus on teams with an over/under of around -200 or higher (more positive). The caveat here is that if you are betting on a big favourite, your odds are likely to be terrible, in which case I suggest you move on to a more realistic bet as the odds will be much better.

Spread (for < -200 teams)

A $50 bet placed before the start of the 2nd half.
The Patriots from a -550 moneyline doesn’t sound as attractive as a -7 (-110) spread, especially if you can see them dropping to -3 or less at any time during the game. Perhaps their opponent, the Buffalo Bills, will win by 13 in the 1st half. The Patriots’ spread in the 2nd half is now -3. Time to strike! Of course, a -1 or -2 point spread would be better, but -3 is good enough, especially for a team you already think will win.

2nd half over/under

A $50 bet placed before the start of the 2nd half.
From what I understand, taking the over/under at the start of any game is more of a real gamble, but taking it at the halfway point when you have seen the preview of the game can bring you fantastic returns. If your moneyline or spread selection is behind at the halfway point and the number of points needed to win it is more/less than the 2nd half, take the bet! A great example of this is when the Vikings were down 20-0 at half time against the Broncos in week 11. The 2nd half over/under was 20, and if you pick the Vikings to win, as most experts did, they will need 21 points to win. This 21 points is more than 2 and a half times the over/under, so it would only make sense to take the over, otherwise you are betting against yourself.

4th quarter MoneyLine

A $100 bet placed before the start of the 4th quarter.
This is the best bet to place when your team is trailing in the 4th quarter. The more they are behind, the better. It can easily change a team from -550 to something manageable like -220, a much better payout for you on a team you already believed would win. This really gives you a chance to double down with better odds when your team is just working through the fractures before making a comeback. How they pull off such a comeback is not your job, but you will get to enjoy all the glory of such a feat when it is achieved.

Full betting example

Denver @ Minnesota, 17.11.2019
I think the Vikings are going to win, but their moneyline is -419 before kickoff, so I decided to wait until the 2nd half to get better odds on the spread (currently -10). The Vikings were destroyed in the 1st half, trailing the Broncos by 20 points. This is what I want to see and it's time to place my bets. I bet $50 on the Vikings to cover the new -3 spread. I placed another $50 bet of over 20 for the 2nd half. Now I wait until the 4th quarter to see if my Vikings are still behind. Great news! They are still behind 23-7, i.e. before the 4th quarter starts I place a $100 bet on the Vikings. The Vikings win the game with a score of 23-27.

I collect my withdrawals on all 3 tickets – the 2H-3 spread paid -110, the 2H overpay -110, and the Q4 moneyline paid -220. All three bets brought me $46 in profit, which was $138 on top of my $200 bet. Now, this may seem like a low profit as it is less than 100% of what I wagered, but in this case, the team got such a big advantage as -520 on the moneyline and -10.5 on the spread at the beginning of the week. It was a fantastic piece to take home considering how much less I would have had to make if I hadn’t waited.

Why these bets over other bets?

There are many other bets that can be placed at different times during the season, such as futures or early weekly bets, but they either require a lot of patience or don’t provide as much fluctuation in the odds as you would hope. When you lock in your bet early, you lose the opportunity to access trends or changes in the live game, so I believe the above bets are more profitable when you favour your team that you think really has the edge to win. Let’s face it, if you’re going to win, why not actually win? Take home the cake, not just a slice – forget about hedging, forget about nickel-and-diming weekly line movements and be a sports ‘day trader’ by watching live indicators that you can act on.