Draft Day Analysis- Comparing the Success of NFL Draft Picks and Undrafted Free Agents

This is primarily based on performance, with the team holding the worst record getting first pick and the reigning Super Bowl champions picking last.

During this draft, players are on the edge of their seats, hoping that the league’s commissioner will call their name and announce their ascent into the pro world of football. Those selected get to sigh a breath of relief knowing that all those hours spent training and working hard have finally paid off – as for the rest though, is it really over?

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A Quick Backstory

Around 235 new players are drafted each year, out of a pool of thousands, with another 220 that eventually sign on as undrafted free agents. Quarterback Tommy Devito recently sparked viral success after signing up with the New York Giants after being an undrafted free agent, reigniting the age-old debate question as to whether leagues can draft the best players during the first round after all. Another classic example of this was Kurt Warner who became an undrafted free agent in 1994 and waltzed into the NFL’s Hall of Fame a couple of years later in 2017.  

With this in mind, if draft selection history is any indication of the future, then when compared to undrafted free agents, drafted players should, statistically speaking:

• Stand a higher chance at being inducted to the Hall of Fame,
• Stand a higher chance at being selected for Pro Bowl,
• Play more games on average,
• Start more games on average.

1994 - 2009 – Hall of Fame

In the NFL, the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, is pretty much the sport’s crown jewel. A special place in its halls is reserved for professional football’s elite players, the GOATS who have made All-Pro and Pro-Bowls teams, smashed Super Bowls and generally left their mark on the sport for years to come. The only clause here is that for a player to be considered for the Hall of Fame, then he must have retired at least five seasons ago.

The data here indicates that out of the 46 NFL players whose careers featured between 1994 and 2009, 32 were picked during the first draft, which validates the argument that first rounds do count after all.

2010 - 2023 – Pro Bowl

The Pro Bowl is an event that’s held by the NFL at the end of every season each year and showcases the season’s best players based on votes received from other players, football coaches, and of course the fans. Looking at data concerning players who kicked off their NFL journeys between 2010 and 2020, the first thing that stands out is that 75% of this player pool was made up of players who had been drafted during the first three rounds, while the undrafted free agents tended to out outperform those selected during the third round. Nevertheless, the chances of an undrafted player being selected for the Pro Bowl were still significantly lower when compared to those drafted during the late rounds.

What Happens If You Don’t Get on The Roster?

With competition as fierce as this, it’s no surprise that only a small percentage of undrafted free agents make it onto the NFL’s roster. Essentially teams will be required to trim down their 90-man roster down to 53 players before the season kicks off and the pressure is definitely on.

For those who don’t make the cut it’s not over yet, there are still ways to go about this. The next step often includes signing up for a preferred team’s practice squad, which includes several players training alongside the team with the chance of being drafted during the season, these players however never get to play any official games before that.

If the practice squad isn’t an option, then the player can either transfer to a lower-league football team or make use of the skills and disciplines he’s developed as a football player to pivot into another career.

What Does the Data Say?

After having compared the numbers, are we able to conclude whether drafted players tend to be overall more successful than their undrafted free-agent counterparts? The data here would imply that it majorly depends on two things; the position played, and the round drafted. Irrespective of their position, players that were drafted during the first round tend to be the most successful and generally perform above average.

Based on the data regarding the margins between undrafted players and late-round picks, most of the time undrafted players tend to outperform late-round picks by around 50%. Players to be drafted during the first round tend to be the cream of the crop, however there are always those diamonds in the rough that tend to prove us wrong from time to time, which of course keeps things very interesting.