Caleb Williams and the Next No1 Draft Pick to Win a Super Bowl
As of 2024, a sum total of 18 players have gone on to win the Super Bowl after being selected No.1 overall in the Draft. Is that number a little underwhelming? After all, it means four out of every five players selected at no.1 never go on to become Super Bowl champions.
Of course, in some ways, the statistic is not surprising: Not every No. 1 overall pick ends up being a John Elway or Peyton Manning.
However, the fact that a relatively small number of no.1 picks go on to become Super Bowl champions means it’s incredibly difficult to predict who will be next. We can consider Caleb Williams, for example. The Chicago Bears’ new quarterback, Caleb Williams, looks like he has everything in the locker to have a stellar NFL career, but it’s far from guaranteed that he will end up with a Super Bowl ring or two at the end of his career.
Goff and Burrows in Contention
Of course, to make a prediction, you can always look at the sportsbooks’ NFL lines for the new season. If we look at the top eight teams in the odds for Super Bowl LIX, we can pinpoint two of those teams with no.1 picks on their roster – The Detroit Lions (Jarred Goff) and Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrows). Those teams rank 4th and 5th in the betting. Sportsbooks’ odds are by no means an indicator of guaranteed success, but it does suggest there is a chance that we see the first new No.1 draft pick win a Super Bowl since Eric Fisher (Super Bowl LIV with the Chiefs).
There are others who could do it next season, and theoretically, there is a chance that Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield end up as Super Bowl winners, but we would be veering into major shock territory if the Cardinals or Buccaneers won it all next February. Similarly, it would be deemed a minor miracle if the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl LIX, so it’s unlikely that we see 2014 no.1 pick Jadeveon Clowney earn his first Super Bowl win. Perhaps the ‘best of the rest’ in terms of outside chances to win the Super Bowl is Jameis Winston. The 2015 no.1 pick has signed with the Cleveland Browns, a team that might just get a whiff of the Playoffs.
Williams Has History Weighing on Him
What, then, about the 2024 No. 1 draft pick? Well, history will be against him in his rookie season – no no.1 draft pick has ever won the Super Bowl in their first season in the modern NFL era. It almost always takes several seasons. The Manning brothers both had to wait several seasons, with Eli (four seasons) doing it somewhat quicker than Peyton (nine seasons). And if Williams gets disheartened in a situation where the Bears (assuming he stays in Chicago) fail to win the big one across the next decade or so, he can always look to the great John Elway for inspiration. The No. 1 pick in 1983 had to wait 15 seasons to win a Super Bowl with his beloved Broncos. He won two in a row before signing off on a storied career.
None of these statistics really mean anything in the grand scheme of things. NFL history is littered with great players – Dan Marino, Barry Sanders, Randy Moss – who have missed out on a Super Bowl ring, and, as we know, that includes dozens and dozens of No.1 draft picks. Predicting the next one – the man who will be the 19th No.1 overall pick to be a Super Bowl champion – is, therefore, not easy, and it may even be someone we have not mentioned above.