The Truth About Momentum in NFL Games - What the Data Shows

You know the drill. A team makes a big play, and suddenly they've "seized the momentum." A quarterback throws a pick-six, and now the momentum has "shifted." It's football's favorite buzzword, used to explain everything from miraculous comebacks to crushing defeats.

But here's the thing: What if momentum is nothing more than a comforting myth?

To explore this question, I've dug into the stats, rewatched hours of footage, and examined the perspectives of coaches, players, and analysts who have publicly commented on this phenomenon. What I found might just change the way you watch the game.

The Numbers Don't Lie: Why "Hot Streaks" Might Be a Mirage

Let's start with the numbers. Several studies have analyzed NFL game data to look at how teams performed after what we typically consider "momentum-shifting" plays - things like fourth-down conversions, pick-sixes, or long touchdown passes.

A 2011 study published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports found no statistical evidence for the concept of momentum in professional sports, including football. The researchers concluded that what fans and commentators often attribute to momentum can be better explained by normal fluctuations in performance.

This scientific perspective challenges our intuitive understanding of the game. Take the famous "Immaculate Reception" by Franco Harris in the 1972 playoffs. While often cited as a massive momentum shift, from a statistical standpoint, it was an incredibly unlikely series of events that didn't necessarily predict the outcome of the game.

Another study, published in the Journal of Sports Economics in 2019, analyzed over 5,000 NFL games and found that the impact of momentum-shifting plays on win probability was minimal. The researchers concluded that "the effects of momentum are likely overstated in professional football."

Let's look at a specific example: Super Bowl LI, where the New England Patriots famously came back from a 28-3 deficit against the Atlanta Falcons. This game is often held up as the ultimate example of momentum in action. But when we break it down play by play, we see a series of discrete events: good plays by the Patriots, mistakes by the Falcons, and some lucky bounces. Each play was independent, not driven by an invisible force of momentum.

The Psychological Factor: Belief vs. Reality

So if the numbers don't support momentum, why do we believe in it so strongly? Sports psychologists have long been interested in this question.

Dr. Angus Mugford, former director of high performance for the Toronto Blue Jays, told The New York Times in 2015, "Momentum is a bit like the Loch Ness monster: Everyone talks about it, but no one can prove it exists." He explained that while players might feel a boost of confidence after a big play, this doesn't necessarily translate to improved performance.

This view is echoed in the academic world. Dr. Alan Reifman, a professor at Texas Tech University and author of "Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks," argues that what we perceive as momentum is often just random variation in performance.

In his book, Reifman writes, "Our minds are wired to see patterns, even when they don't exist. In sports, this tendency leads us to attribute a series of good plays to 'momentum' when it might just be normal fluctuation in performance."

The Athlete's Perspective: Feeling the Flow

While statisticians and psychologists might be skeptical, athletes often speak about feeling momentum during games. After the Minneapolis Miracle in 2018, Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs told reporters, "I felt like it was meant to be. The momentum was in our favor."

Similarly, Tom Brady, known for his numerous comebacks, has often referenced momentum in post-game interviews. After the Patriots' historic comeback in Super Bowl LI, Brady said, "We just kept fighting and found a way to play our best football right at the end."

However, it's worth noting that these feelings don't always align with game outcomes. The Vikings, despite the emotional high of Diggs' last-second touchdown, lost their next game 38-7 to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner offered an interesting perspective on this disconnect in a 2019 NFL Network interview. "As a player, you feel momentum," Warner said. "But looking back now as an analyst, I see that what we called momentum was really just execution. When we executed well, we felt like we had momentum. When we didn't, we felt like we lost it."

Another intriguing anecdote comes from former NFL linebacker Brian Urlacher. In a 2017 interview with The Athletic, Urlacher recalled a game against the Arizona Cardinals in 2006. The Bears were down 20-0 at halftime, but came back to win 24-23. "At halftime, we didn't talk about momentum," Urlacher said. "We talked about assignments, about doing our jobs better. The momentum came because we executed, not the other way around."

Coaching Perspectives: Strategy Over Superstition

NFL coaches, known for their pragmatic approach to the game, often downplay the role of momentum. Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots' head coach, is famously dismissive of the concept. In a 2017 press conference, when asked about momentum, Belichick tersely responded, "I don't really worry about all that. Just try to play and coach well. That's all you can do."

Similarly, Pete Carroll, head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, told reporters after a comeback win in 2020, "It's not about momentum. It's about executing and doing your job on every single play."

These statements suggest that at the highest levels of the game, coaches focus more on consistent execution than on riding waves of perceived momentum.

Former NFL head coach Tony Dungy offered a nuanced view in his book, "The Mentor Leader." Dungy wrote, "Momentum is real, but it's not magic. It's the result of doing the little things right, play after play. What looks like momentum to fans is often just a team executing its game plan effectively."

An illustrative example of this coaching philosophy in action came in Super Bowl XLIV. The New Orleans Saints, trailing the Indianapolis Colts 10-6 at halftime, opened the second half with a surprise onside kick. The Saints recovered and went on to win the game. Head coach Sean Payton later explained that the decision wasn't about momentum, but about stealing a possession from the Colts' potent offense. It was strategy, not superstition, that guided the bold call.

The Strategic Implications: Momentum as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

While the statistical evidence for momentum is lacking, some argue that the belief in momentum can influence strategic decisions, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In a 2018 article for FiveThirtyEight, football analyst Josh Hermsmeyer explored this idea. He found that teams who believed they had momentum were more likely to make aggressive play calls, which could sometimes lead to better outcomes. However, Hermsmeyer cautioned against attributing this to momentum itself, writing, "It's not that momentum exists, but that belief in momentum changes behavior."

This perspective was echoed by former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer in a 2014 ESPN interview. Dilfer said, "Momentum is real in the NFL, but it's not this magic force that takes over games. It's more about confidence and energy. When a team feels like they have momentum, they play with more swagger, take more chances."

An example of this phenomenon can be seen in the 2019 AFC Divisional Round game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter. Instead of playing conservatively to protect their lead, they attempted a fake punt in their own territory. The play failed, the Chiefs scored quickly, and it marked the beginning of a historic comeback. Many attributed this to a momentum shift, but it could be argued that the Texans' aggressive decision-making, influenced by their perceived momentum, actually worked against them.

The Media Narrative: Creating Stories from Chaos

As members of the sports media, we must acknowledge our role in perpetuating the momentum myth. It's a convenient narrative device, a way to create a story arc within the chaos of a football game.

Michael Lewis, author of "Moneyball," addressed this in a 2018 interview with Forbes. "The human mind is a story-processing machine," Lewis said. "We use stories to make sense of the world, and sports media feeds that need. Momentum is a great story, even if it's not always supported by the facts."

Sports journalist Bill Simmons, known for his emotional investment in games, wrote in his book "The Book of Basketball," "The momentum thing is real. Unfortunately, it's impossible to quantify, which makes stat guys dismiss it." This tension between narrative and numbers is at the heart of the momentum debate.

A prime example of media narrative shaping the perception of momentum can be found in Super Bowl XLIX between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. When the Seahawks intercepted Tom Brady late in the fourth quarter, the commentators spoke of a massive momentum shift. Yet just a few plays later, Malcolm Butler's goal-line interception won the game for the Patriots. The rapid swing in narrative highlights how quickly the concept of momentum can flip, calling into question its validity as a predictive tool.

The Role of Randomness: Embracing the Chaos

One aspect often overlooked in discussions of momentum is the role of randomness in football. The oblong shape of the football itself introduces an element of unpredictability that can be mistaken for momentum shifts.

In his book "The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing," Michael Mauboussin argues that football has a higher degree of luck involved than many other sports. Mauboussin writes, "In football, the bounce of the ball on a fumble, a tipped pass, or even the weather can have a huge impact on the outcome. These random elements are often misinterpreted as momentum."

This view is supported by advanced analytics. Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders, has often written about the role of randomness in football. In a 2019 article, Schatz noted, "What fans and commentators often call momentum is usually just regression to the mean. Teams that are performing above their usual level will tend to come back down, and vice versa."

The "Music City Miracle" in the 2000 AFC Wild Card game between the Tennessee Titans and the Buffalo Bills is a perfect example of how randomness can be mistaken for momentum. The Titans' miraculous lateral play for a touchdown as time expired seemed to epitomize a momentum-shifting play. However, it was really just an incredibly unlikely event that happened to occur at a crucial moment.

Case Studies: Momentum Myths Debunked

Let's look at some more specific games often cited as examples of momentum at work, and see how they hold up under scrutiny:

1. Super Bowl XLII: Giants vs. Patriots (2008) The New York Giants' upset victory over the undefeated New England Patriots is often attributed to the momentum shift created by David Tyree's famous "helmet catch." However, the Giants still had to execute several more plays perfectly to score the winning touchdown. The catch was extraordinary, but it didn't guarantee victory.
2. 2013 NFC Championship: Seahawks vs. 49ers Richard Sherman's tipped pass, leading to an interception in the end zone, is often seen as the momentum-clinching play. But this ignores the fact that the Seahawks' defense had been playing at a high level throughout the game. The interception was a continuation of their strong performance, not a magical shift in the game's energy.
3. 2006 AFC Championship: Colts vs. Patriots The Colts' comeback from a 21-3 deficit is often cited as a momentum-driven victory. However, a closer look reveals a series of tactical adjustments by the Colts' coaching staff and improved execution by the players, rather than an invisible force taking over the game.

These cases illustrate that what we perceive as momentum is often just a series of well-executed plays combined with a dose of luck.

The Practical Implications: How Should Teams Approach "Momentum"?

Given the lack of statistical evidence for momentum, how should teams approach the concept? Several strategies emerge from our analysis:

1. Focus on Execution: As many coaches have emphasized, concentrating on doing your job on every play is more important than trying to ride a wave of momentum.
2. Maintain Emotional Stability: Teams that can stay level-headed, not getting too high after successes or too low after failures, may be better equipped to perform consistently.
3. Leverage Belief Strategically: While momentum might not be real, the belief in momentum can affect player confidence and risk-taking. Coaches might use this to their advantage in certain situations.
4. Prepare for Randomness: Understanding that many momentum-like swings are due to random chance can help teams stay focused and not panic when things seem to be going against them.
5. Use Data-Driven Decision Making: Relying on analytics rather than gut feelings about momentum can lead to better strategic choices in crucial moments.

An excellent example of these principles in action can be seen in the Philadelphia Eagles' approach during their Super Bowl LII victory over the New England Patriots. Head coach Doug Pederson's aggressive play-calling, including the famous "Philly Special," wasn't about riding momentum, but about maximizing their chances of success based on careful analysis of their own strengths and the Patriots' tendencies.

The Fan Experience: Balancing Analysis and Emotion

As fans, understanding the momentum myth doesn't mean we can't enjoy the emotional rollercoaster of a football game. The excitement of a big play, the tension of a close fourth quarter – these are what make football thrilling.

But we can enhance our appreciation of the game by looking deeper. Instead of attributing shifts in the game to an invisible force of momentum, we can analyze the specific factors that led to those changes. What adjustments did the coaches make? How did player matchups affect the outcome? What role did random chance play?

By combining emotional investment with analytical understanding, we can develop a richer, more nuanced appreciation of the game we love.

Take, for instance, the Minneapolis Miracle. As fans, we can still revel in the sheer improbability and excitement of the play. But we can also appreciate the precise route running by Stefon Diggs, the perfectly timed throw by Case Keenum, and yes, the missed tackle by Marcus Williams that made it all possible. Understanding these elements doesn't diminish the play's magic – it enhances our appreciation of the skill and circumstance that came together in that moment.

Conclusion: Redefining Momentum

So, is momentum in football real? The evidence suggests that, at least in the way it's commonly understood, it's largely a myth. What we call momentum is often a combination of normal performance variation, psychological factors, and our human tendency to create narratives out of random events.

But that doesn't mean the concept is worthless. Perhaps we need to redefine momentum, not as an external force that acts upon a game, but as a description of a team executing well, making good decisions, and yes, getting a bit lucky.

In the end, the momentum myth reminds us of what makes football so captivating: it's a game of skill, strategy, and chance, where every play can change the course of the game. And that's true whether you believe in momentum or not.

As we watch games in the future, let's appreciate the ebb and flow, the big plays and the subtle strategy. But let's also remember that behind the excitement and the narratives, there's a complex, chaotic, beautiful game that defies simple explanations.

That's the real thrill of football – not an invisible force of momentum, but the very visible display of human skill and determination, playing out in all its unpredictable glory every Sunday.

From the Immaculate Reception to the Minneapolis Miracle, from Tom Brady's comebacks to Eli Manning's improbable Super Bowl wins, the history of the NFL is filled with moments that seem to defy explanation. But perhaps that's the point. Football, like life, is often more complex and nuanced than our narratives suggest. And in embracing that complexity, rather than simplifying it to a concept like momentum, we can find an even deeper appreciation for the game we love.

So the next time you hear an announcer declare a momentum shift, take a moment to look closer. What you'll see isn't an invisible force, but the beautiful, chaotic, endlessly fascinating game of football, in all its glory.